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Abiotic stresses such as drought, heat, cold, salinity and flooding significantly impact plant growth, development and productivity. As the planet has warmed, these abiotic stresses have increased in frequency and intensity, affecting the global food supply and making it imperative to develop stress-resilient crops. In the past 20 years, the development of omics technologies has contributed to the growth of datasets for plants grown under a wide range of abiotic environments. Integration of these rapidly growing data using machine-learning (ML) approaches can complement existing breeding efforts by providing insights into the mechanisms underlying plant responses to stressful conditions, which can be used to guide the design of resilient crops. In this review, we introduce ML approaches and provide examples of how researchers use these approaches to predict molecular activities, gene functions and genotype responses under stressful conditions. Finally, we consider the potential and challenges of using such approaches to enable the design of crops that are better suited to a changing environment. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Crops under stress: can we mitigate the impacts of climate change on agriculture and launch the ‘Resilience Revolution’?’. 

The formation of complex traits is the consequence of genotype and activities at multiple molecular levels. However, connecting genotypes and these activities to complex traits remains challenging. Here, we investigate whether integrating genomic, transcriptomic, and methylomic data can improve pre- diction for six Arabidopsis traits. We find that transcriptome- and methylome- based models have performances comparable to those of genome-based models. However, models built for flowering time using different omics data identify different benchmark genes. Nine additional genes identified as important for flowering time from our models are experimentally validated as regulating flowering. Gene contributions to flowering time prediction are accession-dependent and distinct genes contribute to trait prediction in dif- ferent genotypes. Models integrating multi-omics data perform best and reveal known and additional gene interactions, extending knowledge about existing regulatory networks underlying flowering time determination. These results demonstrate the feasibility of revealing molecular mechanisms underlying complex traits through multi-omics data integration. 

Since they emerged approximately 125 million years ago, flowering plants have evolved to dominate the terrestrial landscape and survive in the most inhospitable environments on earth. At their core, these adaptations have been shaped by changes in numerous, interconnected pathways and genes that collectively give rise to emergent biological phenomena. Linking gene expression to morphological outcomes remains a grand challenge in biology, and new approaches are needed to begin to address this gap. Here, we implemented topological data analysis (TDA) to summarize the high dimensionality and noisiness of gene expression data using lens functions that delineate plant tissue and stress responses. Using this framework, we created a topological representation of the shape of gene expression across plant evolution, development, and environment for the phylogenetically diverse flowering plants. The TDA-based Mapper graphs form a well-defined gradient of tissues from leaves to seeds, or from healthy to stressed samples, depending on the lens function. This suggests that there are distinct and conserved expression patterns across angiosperms that delineate different tissue types or responses to biotic and abiotic stresses. Genes that correlate with the tissue lens function are enriched in central processes such as photosynthetic, growth and development, housekeeping, or stress responses. Together, our results highlight the power of TDA for analyzing complex biological data and reveal a core expression backbone that defines plant form and function. 

Abstract Predicting phenotypes from a combination of genetic and environmental factors is a grand challenge of modern biology. Slight improvements in this area have the potential to save lives, improve food and fuel security, permit better care of the planet, and create other positive outcomes. In 2022 and 2023 the first open-to-the-public Genomes to Fields (G2F) initiative Genotype by Environment (GxE) prediction competition was held using a large dataset including genomic variation, phenotype and weather measurements and field management notes, gathered by the project over nine years. The competition attracted registrants from around the world with representation from academic, government, industry, and non-profit institutions as well as unaffiliated. These participants came from diverse disciplines include plant science, animal science, breeding, statistics, computational biology and others. Some participants had no formal genetics or plant-related training, and some were just beginning their graduate education. The teams applied varied methods and strategies, providing a wealth of modeling knowledge based on a common dataset. The winner’s strategy involved two models combining machine learning and traditional breeding tools: one model emphasized environment using features extracted by Random Forest, Ridge Regression and Least-squares, and one focused on genetics. Other high-performing teams’ methods included quantitative genetics, machine learning/deep learning, mechanistic models, and model ensembles. The dataset factors used, such as genetics; weather; and management data, were also diverse, demonstrating that no single model or strategy is far superior to all others within the context of this competition.